Strategic Overview

Afghanistan’s contemporary security environment is dominated by the Taliban’s efforts to consolidate political authority while containing the persistent threat posed by the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP). Although large-scale conventional conflict has largely subsided since 2021, terrorism, humanitarian pressures, economic fragility, and the mass return of Afghan refugees from neighbouring countries continue to strain state capacity. The Taliban increasingly relies on kinetic counterterrorism operations against ISKP, yet structural drivers of instability, including unemployment, political exclusion, and weak institutions, remain largely unaddressed. Regional security dynamics continue to be shaped by Afghanistan’s relationships with Pakistan, Iran, Central Asia, China, and Russia, making the country a focal point for transnational security concerns.

Emerging Risks

Although ISKP remains Afghanistan’s principal immediate security threat, several longer-term challenges are emerging. The rapid return of millions of Afghan refugees risks overwhelming already limited state capacity while expanding recruitment opportunities for extremist organisations. Climate-induced water scarcity, declining international assistance, illicit trafficking networks, and growing geopolitical competition among regional powers may further complicate Afghanistan’s security landscape. Continued restrictions on women’s education and employment also risk undermining long-term economic resilience and governance capacity.

Key Indicators

Capital	Kabul
Population	43 million
GDP Growth	4.3% (2025 est.)
GDP Nominal	US$17–18 billion (est.)
Defence Budget	No publicly disclosed official budget under Taliban administration
Estimated Security Force Personnel	150,000–200,000 (estimated Taliban security apparatus)
Nuclear Weapons	NA
Global Peace Index (2025)	157/163

SACSP Risk Meter

Defence & Security Policy Focus

The Taliban’s security policy is primarily centred on consolidating its control over Afghanistan while suppressing internal threats to its rule. Counterterrorism operations against the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) remain the government’s foremost security priority, accompanied by efforts to strengthen border management, particularly along the frontiers with Pakistan and Iran. The authorities have also intensified operations against smuggling and illicit trafficking networks while expanding internal policing and intelligence capabilities to monitor dissent and maintain domestic control. Internationally, the Taliban continues to pursue limited regional security engagement, seeking practical cooperation with neighbouring states despite its continued lack of formal diplomatic recognition.

Strategic Watchlist

The evolving threat posed by ISKP, particularly its recruitment efforts and operational tempo, remains the most significant development to monitor. Persistent border tensions with Pakistan, coupled with the continued return of Afghan refugees from Pakistan and Iran, have the potential to further strain Afghanistan’s already fragile economic and security environment. At the same time, declining humanitarian assistance and international funding continue to undermine state capacity. Regional diplomatic engagement with the Taliban, particularly by China, Russia, Central Asian states, and Gulf countries, will remain an important indicator of Afghanistan’s evolving strategic position, alongside the gradual development and institutionalisation of the Taliban’s own security and intelligence apparatus.

Strategic Overview

Bangladesh’s security strategy is increasingly shaped by the intersection of maritime security, economic resilience, and strategic balancing in the Bay of Bengal. While the country faces no immediate conventional military threat, Dhaka continues to modernise its armed forces under Forces Goal 2030 while maintaining a foreign policy centred on strategic neutrality and regional stability. Security priorities are currently focused on border management, maritime domain awareness, countering transnational crime, and managing the humanitarian consequences of the Rohingya crisis. As geopolitical competition intensifies across the Indo-Pacific, Bangladesh’s geographic position and growing economic significance are likely to elevate its strategic importance within South Asia and the wider Indian Ocean region.

Emerging Risks

Bangladesh’s principal long-term security challenges are likely to emerge from areas beyond conventional defence. Climate change poses perhaps the most significant strategic threat, particularly through rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and internal displacement. The continued absence of a durable solution to the Rohingya crisis risks creating prolonged humanitarian and security pressures along the Myanmar border. At the same time, increasing geopolitical competition in the Bay of Bengal, cyber vulnerabilities, critical infrastructure security, and economic disruptions resulting from global instability are expected to become increasingly important considerations for policymakers.

Key Indicators

Capital	Dhaka
Population	173 million
GDP Growth	4.0–4.8% (2025–26 est.)
GDP Nominal	US$470 billion
Defence Budget	US$5–6 billion
Active Military Personnel	204,000
Nuclear Weapons	NA
Global Peace Index (2025)	117/163

SACSP Risk Meter

Defence & Security Policy Focus

Bangladesh’s defence policy remains primarily focused on safeguarding sovereignty while avoiding entanglement in regional rivalries. Through Forces Goal 2030, Dhaka has steadily expanded and modernised its military capabilities across all three services, with particular emphasis on maritime security and surveillance capabilities in the Bay of Bengal. Alongside military modernisation, significant attention is devoted to border security, countering transnational crime, disaster response, and protecting critical infrastructure. Bangladesh continues to pursue a policy of strategic neutrality, seeking productive relations with India, China, the United States, and other regional partners while maintaining an emphasis on economic development and stability.

Strategic Watchlist

The future trajectory of the Rohingya crisis remains one of Bangladesh’s most important security concerns, particularly given the continuing instability in Myanmar and the lack of meaningful repatriation progress. Maritime developments in the Bay of Bengal, including naval modernisation by regional powers and competition over strategic infrastructure, also warrant close monitoring. Domestically, economic reforms, inflationary pressures, and financial-sector vulnerabilities will remain important indicators of long-term stability. Meanwhile, climate-related disruptions, cyber threats, and the security implications of major infrastructure projects are likely to become increasingly prominent in Bangladesh’s strategic outlook.

Strategic Overview

Bhutan’s security policy is characterised by a defensive posture centred on safeguarding sovereignty, preserving internal stability, and maintaining balanced regional diplomacy. Without a standing military capable of large-scale conventional operations, Bhutan relies heavily on close security cooperation with India while pursuing an independent foreign policy that prioritises peace and stability. The country’s principal external security concern remains the unresolved boundary dispute with China, particularly in the Doklam region, whose strategic significance extends beyond Bhutan due to its proximity to the India–China–Bhutan tri-junction. Alongside territorial security, Thimphu increasingly recognises climate resilience, cyber security, and critical infrastructure protection as emerging components of national security.

Source: International Crisis Group

Emerging Risks

Although Bhutan enjoys one of the most stable security environments in South Asia, several long-term challenges are becoming increasingly prominent. Intensifying strategic competition between India and China may place greater diplomatic pressure on Bhutan’s traditional balancing approach, particularly as border negotiations continue. Climate change poses an equally significant security challenge through glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), water security concerns, and increased disaster vulnerability. The country’s continued digital transformation also creates new cyber security risks, while economic dependence on hydropower exports and tourism exposes Bhutan to external economic shocks.

Source: World Bank – Bhutan Overview

Key Indicators

Capital	Thimphu
Population	790,000
GDP Growth	6–7% (2025 est.)
GDP Nominal	US$3.3 billion
Defence Budget	Not publicly disclosed
Active Military Personnel	8,000 (Royal Bhutan Army & Royal Bodyguard)
Nuclear Weapons	NA
Global Peace Index (2025)	16/163

SACSP Risk Meter

Defence & Security Policy Focus

Bhutan’s defence policy is fundamentally defensive, focusing on territorial sovereignty, internal stability, and strategic cooperation with India. The Royal Bhutan Army remains relatively small and is primarily tasked with border surveillance, disaster response, and supporting civil authorities. While the country has traditionally maintained a low-profile security posture, growing strategic competition along the Himalayan frontier has increased the importance of border management and infrastructure monitoring. Simultaneously, Bhutan has expanded its focus towards non-traditional security issues including climate resilience, cyber security, and the protection of critical national infrastructure.

Sources: Royal Government of Bhutan · International Crisis Group

Strategic Watchlist

Developments in the ongoing Bhutan–China boundary negotiations will remain the most important strategic issue to monitor, particularly any progress concerning the Doklam Plateau and adjacent disputed territories. Continued Chinese infrastructure construction near contested areas, alongside India’s evolving security posture in the eastern Himalayas, will significantly influence Bhutan’s external security environment. Domestically, climate-induced disasters, especially glacial lake outburst floods, require sustained attention due to their growing frequency and potential impact on national infrastructure. Finally, Bhutan’s expanding digital economy and increasing connectivity will necessitate stronger cyber security capabilities over the coming years.

Sources: Reuters – Bhutan · World Bank – Bhutan

Strategic Overview

India’s defence policy is increasingly shaped by the need to simultaneously manage continental and maritime security challenges while emerging as a leading security actor in the Indo-Pacific. Persistent tensions with China along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), continued cross-border terrorism originating from Pakistan, and growing strategic competition in the Indian Ocean collectively define New Delhi’s contemporary security environment. Alongside conventional military preparedness, India has accelerated defence modernisation through indigenous capability development under Atmanirbhar Bharat, strengthened partnerships with countries such as the United States, France, Japan, and Australia, and expanded investments in cyber, space, and emerging technologies. As regional and global geopolitical competition intensifies, India’s security strategy is increasingly centred on maintaining strategic autonomy while enhancing deterrence across multiple domains.

Sources: Ministry of Defence, Government of India · IISS Military Balance

Emerging Risks

While border tensions with China and Pakistan continue to dominate India’s immediate security outlook, future challenges are increasingly expected to emerge from non-traditional domains. The growing militarisation of cyberspace and outer space, AI-enabled disinformation campaigns, unmanned aerial systems, and attacks on critical infrastructure represent evolving security concerns. Climate-induced disasters, water security, supply chain resilience, and the strategic implications of China’s expanding presence across the Indian Ocean Region are also likely to play a greater role in shaping India’s long-term defence planning. Maintaining simultaneous readiness across continental, maritime, cyber, and information domains will remain one of New Delhi’s principal strategic challenges.

Sources: CSIS · ORF

Key Indicators

Capital	New Delhi
Population	1.45 billion
GDP Growth	6.4–6.8% (2025–26 est.)
GDP Nominal	US$4.2 trillion
Defence Budget	US$86 billion
Active Military Personnel	1.46 million
Nuclear Weapons	172 warheads (estimated)
Global Peace Index (2025)	127/163

SACSP Risk Meter

Defence & Security Policy Focus

India’s defence policy is built upon maintaining credible deterrence across both its northern and western frontiers while expanding its strategic influence throughout the Indian Ocean Region. Military modernisation continues to prioritise indigenous defence production, advanced aerospace capabilities, integrated theatre commands, and maritime domain awareness. Simultaneously, New Delhi has strengthened defence partnerships through frameworks such as the Quad and a series of logistics and interoperability agreements with key international partners. Beyond conventional military capabilities, increasing emphasis is being placed on cyber security, artificial intelligence, space assets, and emerging technologies to prepare for future multi-domain conflict.

Sources: Ministry of Defence · ORF

Strategic Watchlist

Future developments along the Line of Actual Control with China will remain the most important indicator of India’s external security environment, particularly infrastructure construction and military deployments by both sides. Cross-border terrorism and militant activity in Jammu & Kashmir will continue to shape internal security planning, while China’s expanding naval footprint across the Indian Ocean warrants sustained monitoring. Defence reforms, indigenous weapons development, cyber attacks on critical infrastructure, and the evolution of India’s space and artificial intelligence capabilities are also expected to significantly influence New Delhi’s strategic trajectory over the coming years.

Sources: CSIS · Reuters – India

Strategic Overview

The Maldives occupies a strategically significant position at the heart of the Indian Ocean, with major international sea lines of communication passing close to its territory. Consequently, the country’s security policy is primarily focused on safeguarding its maritime domain, protecting critical national infrastructure, and balancing relationships with competing regional powers while preserving strategic autonomy. Although the Maldives faces no immediate conventional military threat, its geographic location has increasingly drawn the attention of India, China, the United States, and other Indo-Pacific actors. Alongside traditional maritime security, Malé is placing greater emphasis on counterterrorism, cyber resilience, climate security, and disaster preparedness as central pillars of its national security strategy.

Sources: International Crisis Group · World Bank – Maldives

Emerging Risks

The Maldives’ long-term security challenges are expected to arise primarily from non-traditional sources rather than interstate conflict. Climate change remains the country’s most significant existential security concern, with sea-level rise posing direct risks to infrastructure, freshwater availability, and long-term habitability. Simultaneously, intensifying geopolitical competition across the Indian Ocean could increase diplomatic pressure on Malé as external powers seek greater strategic influence. Cyber vulnerabilities, tourism dependence, energy security, and the protection of undersea communications infrastructure are also likely to assume greater importance over the coming decade.

Sources: UNDP Maldives · World Bank

Key Indicators

Capital	Malé
Population	530,000
GDP Growth	5–6% (2025–26 est.)
GDP Nominal	US$7.5 billion
Defence Budget	US$90–110 million (estimated)
Active Military Personnel	5,000 (Maldives National Defence Force)
Nuclear Weapons	NA
Global Peace Index (2025)	46/163

SACSP Risk Meter

Defence & Security Policy Focus

The Maldives’ defence policy is centred on protecting its extensive maritime domain, securing critical infrastructure, and responding rapidly to natural disasters and humanitarian emergencies. The Maldives National Defence Force (MNDF) prioritises maritime surveillance, search and rescue, counter-smuggling operations, and the protection of offshore assets. Given its limited military capabilities, Malé relies heavily on defence cooperation with regional partners, particularly India, while also expanding engagement with other international partners. Increasing investments in coastal surveillance systems, cyber security, and maritime domain awareness reflect the country’s recognition that future security challenges are likely to emerge from non-traditional threats rather than conventional military conflict.

Sources: Maldives National Defence Force · SIPRI

Strategic Watchlist

The evolving strategic competition between India and China in the Indian Ocean will remain one of the principal external factors shaping Maldivian security policy. Continued monitoring of foreign infrastructure investments, defence cooperation agreements, and maritime deployments will be essential. Domestically, the resilience of tourism—the country’s primary economic sector—will remain closely linked to national security and economic stability. Climate adaptation initiatives, cyber threats targeting government and financial institutions, and efforts to counter violent extremism should also remain key areas of observation in the coming years.

Sources: Reuters – Maldives · International Crisis Group

Strategic Overview

Nepal’s security policy is primarily centred on safeguarding sovereignty, maintaining internal stability, and balancing its relations between India and China. Owing to its unique geographic position in the Himalayas, Kathmandu has traditionally pursued a policy of strategic neutrality while avoiding alignment with any major power bloc. The Nepal Army’s principal responsibilities include border management, disaster response, countering transnational crime, and supporting civil authorities during emergencies. Although Nepal faces relatively limited conventional military threats, increasing geopolitical competition in the Himalayas, climate-induced disasters, cyber vulnerabilities, and political instability have broadened the country’s conception of national security beyond traditional defence concerns.

Sources: World Bank – Nepal · International Crisis Group

Emerging Risks

Nepal’s long-term security challenges are expected to arise primarily from geopolitical competition and environmental pressures rather than conventional military threats. As strategic competition between India and China intensifies, Kathmandu may face increasing diplomatic pressure to balance competing interests while preserving its strategic autonomy. Climate change remains another significant concern, with glacial retreat, floods, landslides, and earthquakes posing persistent risks to infrastructure and livelihoods. Meanwhile, cyber security, critical infrastructure protection, economic dependence on remittances, and water resource management are likely to assume growing importance within Nepal’s evolving national security framework.

Sources: UNDP Nepal · World Bank

Key Indicators

Capital	Kathmandu
Population	30.9 million
GDP Growth	4.5–5.0% (2025–26 est.)
GDP Nominal	US$46 billion
Defence Budget	US$450–500 million
Active Military Personnel	96,000
Nuclear Weapons	NA
Global Peace Index (2025)	111/163

SACSP Risk Meter

Defence & Security Policy Focus

Nepal’s defence policy is largely defensive and internally oriented, focusing on territorial integrity, disaster response, and support to civil authorities. The Nepal Army plays a central role in humanitarian assistance, earthquake response, infrastructure development, and United Nations peacekeeping operations, where it remains one of the world’s largest troop contributors. Defence planning increasingly emphasises border management, cyber resilience, and protecting critical infrastructure while maintaining close security cooperation with both India and China without formally aligning with either. Kathmandu continues to prioritise strategic autonomy as the cornerstone of its national security policy.

Sources: Nepal Army · UN Peacekeeping

Strategic Watchlist

Future developments surrounding Nepal’s border disputes with India, particularly in the Kalapani–Lipulekh region, will remain an important area of observation. The pace and nature of Chinese infrastructure investment under the Belt and Road Initiative, alongside India’s connectivity projects, will continue to shape Kathmandu’s external security environment. Domestically, political stability, disaster preparedness, cyber security, and the resilience of Nepal’s hydropower sector warrant close monitoring. Climate-induced hazards, including glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) and landslides, are expected to remain among the country’s most significant long-term security challenges.

Sources: Reuters – Nepal · International Crisis Group

Strategic Overview

Pakistan’s contemporary security environment is shaped by the simultaneous management of conventional deterrence against India, an increasingly volatile western frontier with Afghanistan, and persistent internal militancy. While strategic parity with India continues to underpin defence planning, the resurgence of Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) attacks, separatist violence in Balochistan, and growing threats to critical infrastructure associated with the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) have significantly broadened Islamabad’s security priorities. Alongside these immediate concerns, Pakistan continues to modernise its conventional and strategic capabilities despite considerable economic pressures, while strengthening defence cooperation with China, Türkiye, and Gulf partners. The convergence of internal security challenges and regional geopolitical competition is likely to remain the defining feature of Pakistan’s strategic outlook over the coming decade.

Sources: International Crisis Group · IISS Military Balance

Emerging Risks

Pakistan’s immediate security concerns remain dominated by terrorism and border security, but several structural risks are becoming increasingly important. Economic fragility and fiscal constraints may gradually limit defence modernisation and internal security operations. The growing use of drones, cyber operations, and information warfare by both state and non-state actors presents new challenges for national security institutions. Climate-induced water scarcity, energy insecurity, and the continued instability of Afghanistan also threaten to exacerbate existing internal vulnerabilities. Furthermore, increasing strategic competition in the Indian Ocean and expanding Chinese economic investments will require Islamabad to carefully balance its external partnerships while preserving strategic autonomy.

Sources: CSIS · Reuters

Key Indicators

Capital	Islamabad
Population	252 million
GDP Growth	2.6–3.2% (2025–26 est.)
GDP Nominal	US$373 billion
Defence Budget	US$7.6 billion
Active Military Personnel	654,000 + 550,000 (Reserve Force)
Nuclear Weapons	170 warheads (estimated)
Global Peace Index (2025)	152/163

SACSP Risk Meter

Defence & Security Policy Focus

Pakistan’s defence policy continues to rest upon maintaining credible conventional and nuclear deterrence against India while adapting to a rapidly evolving internal security environment. Over the past several years, military resources have increasingly been directed towards counterterrorism operations against the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), border security along the Durand Line, and combating separatist violence in Balochistan. Simultaneously, Islamabad continues to modernise its armed forces through acquisitions from China and Türkiye while expanding domestic defence production capabilities. Maritime security in the Arabian Sea, protection of strategic infrastructure, and strengthening cyber capabilities have also emerged as important components of Pakistan’s evolving defence posture.

Sources: Pakistan Ministry of Defence · SIPRI

Strategic Watchlist

The operational tempo of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) remains the single most important indicator of Pakistan’s internal security environment. Developments in Afghanistan, particularly Taliban–TTP relations and cross-border militant activity, should continue to be closely monitored. The trajectory of the Baloch insurgency, attacks targeting Chinese nationals and CPEC infrastructure, and evolving India–Pakistan military dynamics along the Line of Control will also remain key determinants of regional stability. In the longer term, Pakistan’s fiscal position, defence modernisation programmes, cyber resilience, and the implications of climate-induced water stress are expected to shape the country’s strategic outlook.

Sources: International Crisis Group · Reuters

Strategic Overview

Sri Lanka’s contemporary security strategy has evolved significantly since the end of the civil war in 2009, shifting from counterinsurgency towards maritime security, economic resilience, and the protection of critical national infrastructure. Located astride some of the world’s busiest sea lines of communication (SLOCs), Sri Lanka occupies a strategically important position in the Indian Ocean and has become an increasingly significant arena for regional geopolitical competition. While the threat of large-scale domestic insurgency remains low, Colombo continues to prioritise maritime domain awareness, countering transnational organised crime, and maintaining balanced relations with India, China, and other international partners. Economic recovery following the 2022 financial crisis has also become an integral component of Sri Lanka’s national security framework.

Sources: World Bank – Sri Lanka · International Crisis Group

Emerging Risks

Although Sri Lanka currently faces a relatively stable domestic security environment, several long-term risks continue to evolve. Strategic competition among India, China, and other external powers is likely to increase pressure on Colombo’s traditionally balanced foreign policy. Climate change poses growing challenges through coastal erosion, extreme weather events, and food security concerns. Cyber attacks targeting financial institutions and government infrastructure, energy security, and renewed socio-economic instability remain important areas of concern. As Sri Lanka continues its economic recovery, maintaining political stability while attracting foreign investment will remain closely linked to national security.

Sources: Asian Development Bank · Reuters

Key Indicators

Capital	Sri Jayawardenepura Kotte (administrative) / Colombo (commercial)
Population	22 million
GDP Growth	3–4% (2025–26 est.)
GDP Nominal	US$88 billion
Defence Budget	US$1.3 billion
Active Military Personnel	255,000
Nuclear Weapons	NA
Global Peace Index (2025)	67/163

SACSP Risk Meter

Defence & Security Policy Focus

Sri Lanka’s defence policy has progressively shifted from counterinsurgency operations to protecting its maritime domain, safeguarding critical infrastructure, and supporting disaster response. The Sri Lanka Navy plays an increasingly important role in securing the country’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), countering illegal fishing, maritime trafficking, and narcotics smuggling across the Indian Ocean. Simultaneously, Colombo has sought to strengthen cyber security capabilities and modernise elements of its armed forces while carefully balancing defence engagement with India, China, the United States, and other international partners. Economic security, infrastructure protection, and maritime governance are now central pillars of Sri Lanka’s broader national security strategy.

Sources: Ministry of Defence, Sri Lanka · SIPRI

Strategic Watchlist

Developments surrounding India’s and China’s strategic engagement in Sri Lanka—including investments in ports, logistics infrastructure, and connectivity projects—will remain important indicators of the country’s external security environment. Maritime security challenges such as illegal fishing, trafficking, and the protection of critical sea lanes should continue to receive close attention. Domestically, the pace of economic recovery, political stability, and implementation of fiscal reforms will remain closely linked to national resilience. Cyber security, climate-induced coastal risks, and the modernisation of maritime surveillance capabilities are also expected to shape Sri Lanka’s evolving security landscape over the coming years.

Sources: Reuters – Sri Lanka · International Crisis Group